The beginning and end of the oil age

The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating the beginning and end of the oil age. With the spread of electric vehicles, global demand for oil is expected to decline significantly, and dependence on fossil fuels is expected to decrease. This change is crucial to fighting climate change and promoting sustainable and environmentally friendly transport.

There's a lot of talk at the COP28 Climate Conference in Dubai about how slowly fossil fuel consumption is declining in the fight against climate change. But one positive aspect that representatives can highlight is the growing number of electric vehicles worldwide, which has already led to a surprisingly sharp decline in demand.

According to industry experts, the increase in electric vehicle sales in recent years has prompted forecasters to accelerate their forecasts for the peak of global oil consumption, as public subsidies and improved technology have helped consumers overcome the sometimes frightening sticker prices for battery-powered cars.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (Iea) predicts that global oil consumption will peak at 10 million barrels per day at the end of the last 1300 years.After regularly adjusting its forecast for 2017, it predicts that it will reach a peak of 1 million barrels per day in 2040, at about 1,300 million barrels per day. 1,500 barrels per day.

Apostolos Petropopoulos, an energy modeler at the IEA, said: "The turning point was political support for the transition to electrification, which significantly reduced the demand for oil in the transport sector, which was the main driver of global oil demand growth."

Oil giant BP is forecasting a global peak in oil demand, while the governments of the United States and China, the world's two largest oil consumers, have revised down their forecasts for domestic consumption.

According to the IEA, transportation accounts for about 60% of global oil demand, while the United States alone accounts for about 10%. The IEA expects electric vehicles to reduce global oil demand by 2030 by about 1 million barrels per day, so this share is likely to decrease.500

According to the IEA, global electric vehicle sales now account for about 13% of fully automatic car sales and are expected to increase to 10% of the market by the end of 40 years to 45%. This is the result of an increasingly severe climate change regime introduced by various governments around the world since the Paris Agreement in 2015, which limits global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures.

These figures are high, but the iea says that in order to meet the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming, electric vehicle sales will need to be even higher by 2030 on the order of 70% of the market.

Electric car makers, including General Motors , Ford and Stellantis , have reported signs that labor costs are rising and higher interest rates are slowing U.S. growth.

But in the long run, some researchers are optimistic because of the lower cost of electric vehicle batteries.

The Future of China

According to industry experts, the speed of future introduction of electric vehicles will largely depend on the pricing of electric vehicles and the availability of charging stations. China has an advantage in both respects. According to the British research firm JATO Dynamics, the average electric car in China in mid-2023 cost 31,165 euros (33,964 US dollars). According to JATO, the cheapest electric car in China was 8 percent cheaper than its cheapest gasoline-powered counterpart. This is due to massive government subsidies and the easy availability of rare earth, which is important for the production of electric vehicles.

Electric vehicles account for about 4.1% of the Chinese market and are expected to lead global growth.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the average price of an electric car is more than 53,000 $ , about 5,000 $ higher than a gasoline car, according to car research firm Kelley Blue Book.

The United States has also lagged significantly behind China in terms of the total number of public charging stations. According to a white paper published by the Electrification Institute on May 10 and funded by industry, there are about 52,000 public charging stations in the United States, about 400,000 in Europe and about 120 million in China.

Nevertheless, according to the IEA, electric vehicles are expected to account for up to 2030% of new car registrations in the United States, as they are attracted by the prospect of improving technology, falling prices and avoiding volatile prices at gas pumps.50

conclusion

With electric vehicles (EVs) becoming increasingly popular, the end of the oil age is inevitable. This transition will significantly reduce carbon emissions, promote sustainable energy use and mitigate the effects of climate change. The introduction of electric vehicles is essential for a cleaner and greener future.